Gen Z Protest Likelihood Index

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Gen Z Index Tier

High Medium Low

Protest Incidence Tier

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The index forecasts structural likelihood rather than replaying history. We validate it against recorded protest frequency to create an Observed Incidence Score, and compare that with the Forecast Index Score to classify countries as:

Both scores are ranked and converted to percentiles across all countries for like-for-like comparison.

Countries

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High Tier (Gen Z Index)

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High Incidence

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Legend

Gen Z Tier: High

Gen Z Tier: Medium

Gen Z Tier: Low

Choropleth color = Gen Z Tier

Country	Gen Z Index Rank	Gen Z Tier	Protest Incidence Tier

Table Guide

Gen Z Index Rank

The country’s position in the forecast ranking (1 = highest structural likelihood of youth-led unrest).

Gen Z Tier

A High/Medium/Low banding of the forecast score, using percentile cut-offs to show relative structural risk.

Protest Incidence Tier

A High/Medium/Low banding of observed protest activity, indicating current or recent protest frequency relative to peers.

Select a country (map or table) for details